Sunday, October 22, 2006
Hunker down and put your house in order
Harry Schultz Life Strategies
~ For THINKING humanoids ~ (in 80 nations)
Hunker down and put your house in order
Harry Schultz
extracted from the Harry Schultz Letter [HSL] #656, dated Oct 1, 2006 - DJIA 11,679
Oct 23, 2006
HSL Only US$382 for a 2-yr subscription, an Absolute Must Buy! click
Big Picture
For this double-birthday (mine & HSL) edition, I'm going to boldly go where no one has skateboarded before. If U find it brain-boggling, blame the fumes from scores of birthday-cake candles. This ties in with our cartoon of the month, reflecting that if U want to help "fix the world," U have to stick your neck out -- which I have done for 42 years in HSL. Our seemingly-random choice of the long-neck giraffe as our mascot/symbol was apparently no accident. Here we go, with neck out-sticking:
October 2006 is potentially the most dangerous, risky month in modern history. That's mostly because US elections come on Nov 7. Geopolitically (where HSL "lives"), the US is bound like Gulliver (the giant tied down by the little people, the Lilliputians). Its military is stretched to a danger point & its mostly bumbling politicians (red & blue) are unable to escape the clutches of 2 losing & unwinnable wars... literal tar pits. That makes the following otherwise-illogical moves as logical possibilities in October, when Washington would be acting or failing to act, for election reasons:
1. Washington's so-called neo-cons coerce Bush to bomb Iran & immediately declare Martial Law or a state of war in the US, to stem dissent. This could swing enough disillusioned conservative voters & some war-frightened swing-voters to vote Republican & prevent a Democrat Congress election win, which would in turn block the widely rumoured plan by Democrats (if they control the House) to impeach Bush &/or try Bush&Cheney for war crimes.
••• Flash: 9/20 NYT/CBS poll shows public very unhappy with Congress, favour voting OUT all incumbents. This puts big pressure on White House to reverse public opinion (via radical action?). Or:
2. Israel bombs Iran, alone. Highly unlikely due to govt unpopularity, but if successful would make govt popular again, & may be necessary if they fear Bush won't act, ever. Rumour says it's being considered. Or:
3. Israel bombs Iran with US help/blessing, & both declare a state of war.
4. Russia invades (liberates) Abkhazia & South Ossetia & gets into position to invade or isolate north Georgia. This prediction is certain to come true, if not now, then a bit later. But, Oct would be an ideal month -- when Bush would be loathe to support or help Georgia with US under pressure elsewhere, & when he dare not risk any new US military commitment, strongly opposed by voters. Russia will ignore world outrage. They couldn't care less. They hold all the aces (oil / gas / nuclear / natural resources / public support).
5. If Israel &/or US declare state of war, look for US & Israel foreign exchange controls with immediate effect. Sending funds abroad blocked/limited. (word to wise is-)
6. If any of the above occur, commodity / metal / oil mkts will move notably higher. Oil would lead the way. If Iran is bombed (now or later) they'll close the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf -- through which most regional oil must pass, increasing oil's price by 50% in one day. Don't be without 1-2 good oil stocks.
7. I'm told in the 3rd week of Oct, US history's greatest personal/character attacks will take place against politicians in key red/blue states, near enough to Nov 7 to prevent a proper defence by the accused, mainly by Republican neo cons who fear losing the power they've come to love. It'll be akin to the attack on John Kerry & his Swift boats -- which probably cost him the election.
8. Some geo-political wild card may be played during Oct when Washington is in limbo, something as wild as a China invasion of Taiwan, or China takeaway of the Spratly Islands, or a No. Korean mega missile test, or a No. Korean attack on So.Korea, or a coup d'état in Pakistan - putting nukes under control of militants, etc. Oct is a free pass month for wild/risky moves.
9. A crisis is brewing at the US Fed. Reread my 6/4 pg 2 report re Fed vice chairman Ferguson, in charge of crisis management, who resigned suddenly - with 8yrs left to serve. Will he blow the whistle in Oct on "illegal" or outrageous Fed actions, to stop the rot? Oct might tempt him.
10. Beans spilling has just begun with revelations that US govt spending/deficits are vastly bigger than reported (& the reported ones are already horrors). This may have political repercussions in Oct. Congressman Jim Cooper (D-Tenn) says US Financial Report by US Treasury Dept (which nobody reads or knows exists) reveals "US debt & commitments total not the $8.3 trillion reported, but $49 trillion, 6x more than reported! Also, the US deficit is not 2.6% of GDP & shrinking, but 6.2% of GDP & growing fast." Also, the true 2005 deficit was not PB's $318.5 billion, but $760 billion. There's more & an explanation of the different yardstick mirror tricks (U can check it out here - to The Financial Report of the United States, which Congressman Cooper is now publishing for the whole world to read. - U can also vet the data from: The Financial Report of the USA [you can buy from Amazon], published by Nelson Current & called by Cooper "the official report the White House does not want you to read." Also contains letters from David M. Walker, Comptroller General & head of the US Govt Accountability Office (GAO), who matter-of-factly states that America has a "broken business model."
11. Nations secretly buying gold, £'s & euros may do so more heavily in Oct, knowing DC unlikely to punish them (being too busy politicking), & sensing a change in Congress & thus US policy via Nov election.
12. Psychologically, the world is moving en masse into a disillusion & despair phase, replacing former fear & aggression phase. Disbelief is becoming dominant. We saw it strongly recently in Thailand, Lebanon, Japan, Germany, Italy, Sweden, UK & in the US - where its effect on US elections will favour the less aggressive Democrats. The Republicans can outspend the Dems 5 to 1, & US Oct TV will be choked with poli-ads. But negative ads may backfire per my observation above.
13. Hezbollah may kick up trouble in Oct, a surprise. US & Israel may be slow or reluctant to act, per # 11.
14. Oct may see a surge into deflation. This reflects less govt credit creation & money pumping. No helicopters dropping $'s. Also reflects rapidly deflating housing bubble. Commodities May-Sept washout may continue into Oct, or if not, can have spillover effect. This probably relates to my 5-year forecast cartoon in HSL640 (5/9/04) showing the transition from rising inflation to disinflation to deflation to recession to X (economic chaos? Depression?).
15. One psychological study sent me pinpoints Mar-Aug 2011 as the "1931" of our future (ie, mid depression). This fits my prediction cartoon if projected 2 more yrs. Cheerful, eh? But nothing is to be feared if one is aware & prepares for various scenarios.
••• Since writing those words, The Economist mag headlines: Weapons of mass disinflation. They note "Cheaper goods from China do not just reduce the prices of our imports, but the prices of all goods sold in [our &] competing domestic mkts." !! And competition from emerging nations holds down inflation not just in traded goods but also in non-traded ones, by restraining wages" !! So cheap goods from China, etc, is a very sharp 2-edged sword that is doing karate-chops to biz profits & wage earners. This is an unexpected (by govt/public) deflationary surge, linking up with a commodity correction. For the shorterm, at least, deflation is a real worry (as friend Hugh Hendry predicted--see last GCRU) & if it gets out of control, it will quickly lead to a mega recession. This will affect US election also, as Oct news reports it daily.
16. This isn't a forecast, but historically, Oct has been the month-of-choice for major stock mkt crashes. I've been moderately bullish on US stocks, but S&P chart is in a bearish rising wedge. Not much left to go; make or break in Oct. Nasdaq is stronger, but is possibly in a year 2000-type blow-off stage. History repeats? DotComs caused the 2000 NAS blow-off. Will the Aug-Sept bursting of the housing bubble cause the Oct 2006 NAS blow-off?
17. If US stks fall, world will follow.
***This list sounds radical, but are we not in radical times? TIME mag thinks so, features Iran's president on its Sept 25 cover & interviews him. Buy a copy. TIME says a US cruiser, minesweepers & mine hunters are ordered to be ready to move (to the Gulf) by Oct 1. There's that word October again. Mine sweeping is essential if Iran plants mines as in last Iraq war. This reminds me of ship movements before the Iraq invasion. It was a giveaway that Bush planned to invade before he heard from UN inspectors or told Congress; he put troopships in place & pretended he had not yet decided. I reported this deceptive anomaly at the time, but the media didn't see it or want to report it. Déjà vu.
Time's excellent analysis notes: "On the face of it, a war with Iran is absurd." But they quote Ali Ansari, top think-tank Iran analyst: "We are headed for conflict." TIME quotes some who say Iran could become able to enrich enough uranium to fuel a bomb well before it actually assembles a nuclear device. "Some believe that is when a nation becomes a nuclear power. That red line, experts say, could be just a year away." IMO, GB wants that moment to come on his watch. By acting in Oct '06, he gets 2 birds with one net. If the Pentagon can't do it in Oct 06, then Oct 08 could work for the Nov 08 election. Flip a coin.
••• CNN interviewed Mr.Bush on 9/20. GB said if he gets evidence Iran is building a bomb, he'd take pre-emptive action. An Asian cynic commented "Israel could always manufacture it." (more Déjà vu)
•••• I hope most of the above doesn't take place, & normal odds say most won't. But power corrupts; power literally changes the human brain to do things beyond normal odds & expectations. So, dear reader, hunker down & put your house in order "just in case."
If U reread this Big Pic U'll see what to do; read between the lines.
UH
Archives
© Copyright 1964-2006 F.E.R.C.
Please Visit our Links for more related material.
~ For THINKING humanoids ~ (in 80 nations)
Hunker down and put your house in order
Harry Schultz
extracted from the Harry Schultz Letter [HSL] #656, dated Oct 1, 2006 - DJIA 11,679
Oct 23, 2006
HSL Only US$382 for a 2-yr subscription, an Absolute Must Buy! click
Big Picture
For this double-birthday (mine & HSL) edition, I'm going to boldly go where no one has skateboarded before. If U find it brain-boggling, blame the fumes from scores of birthday-cake candles. This ties in with our cartoon of the month, reflecting that if U want to help "fix the world," U have to stick your neck out -- which I have done for 42 years in HSL. Our seemingly-random choice of the long-neck giraffe as our mascot/symbol was apparently no accident. Here we go, with neck out-sticking:
October 2006 is potentially the most dangerous, risky month in modern history. That's mostly because US elections come on Nov 7. Geopolitically (where HSL "lives"), the US is bound like Gulliver (the giant tied down by the little people, the Lilliputians). Its military is stretched to a danger point & its mostly bumbling politicians (red & blue) are unable to escape the clutches of 2 losing & unwinnable wars... literal tar pits. That makes the following otherwise-illogical moves as logical possibilities in October, when Washington would be acting or failing to act, for election reasons:
1. Washington's so-called neo-cons coerce Bush to bomb Iran & immediately declare Martial Law or a state of war in the US, to stem dissent. This could swing enough disillusioned conservative voters & some war-frightened swing-voters to vote Republican & prevent a Democrat Congress election win, which would in turn block the widely rumoured plan by Democrats (if they control the House) to impeach Bush &/or try Bush&Cheney for war crimes.
••• Flash: 9/20 NYT/CBS poll shows public very unhappy with Congress, favour voting OUT all incumbents. This puts big pressure on White House to reverse public opinion (via radical action?). Or:
2. Israel bombs Iran, alone. Highly unlikely due to govt unpopularity, but if successful would make govt popular again, & may be necessary if they fear Bush won't act, ever. Rumour says it's being considered. Or:
3. Israel bombs Iran with US help/blessing, & both declare a state of war.
4. Russia invades (liberates) Abkhazia & South Ossetia & gets into position to invade or isolate north Georgia. This prediction is certain to come true, if not now, then a bit later. But, Oct would be an ideal month -- when Bush would be loathe to support or help Georgia with US under pressure elsewhere, & when he dare not risk any new US military commitment, strongly opposed by voters. Russia will ignore world outrage. They couldn't care less. They hold all the aces (oil / gas / nuclear / natural resources / public support).
5. If Israel &/or US declare state of war, look for US & Israel foreign exchange controls with immediate effect. Sending funds abroad blocked/limited. (word to wise is-)
6. If any of the above occur, commodity / metal / oil mkts will move notably higher. Oil would lead the way. If Iran is bombed (now or later) they'll close the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf -- through which most regional oil must pass, increasing oil's price by 50% in one day. Don't be without 1-2 good oil stocks.
7. I'm told in the 3rd week of Oct, US history's greatest personal/character attacks will take place against politicians in key red/blue states, near enough to Nov 7 to prevent a proper defence by the accused, mainly by Republican neo cons who fear losing the power they've come to love. It'll be akin to the attack on John Kerry & his Swift boats -- which probably cost him the election.
8. Some geo-political wild card may be played during Oct when Washington is in limbo, something as wild as a China invasion of Taiwan, or China takeaway of the Spratly Islands, or a No. Korean mega missile test, or a No. Korean attack on So.Korea, or a coup d'état in Pakistan - putting nukes under control of militants, etc. Oct is a free pass month for wild/risky moves.
9. A crisis is brewing at the US Fed. Reread my 6/4 pg 2 report re Fed vice chairman Ferguson, in charge of crisis management, who resigned suddenly - with 8yrs left to serve. Will he blow the whistle in Oct on "illegal" or outrageous Fed actions, to stop the rot? Oct might tempt him.
10. Beans spilling has just begun with revelations that US govt spending/deficits are vastly bigger than reported (& the reported ones are already horrors). This may have political repercussions in Oct. Congressman Jim Cooper (D-Tenn) says US Financial Report by US Treasury Dept (which nobody reads or knows exists) reveals "US debt & commitments total not the $8.3 trillion reported, but $49 trillion, 6x more than reported! Also, the US deficit is not 2.6% of GDP & shrinking, but 6.2% of GDP & growing fast." Also, the true 2005 deficit was not PB's $318.5 billion, but $760 billion. There's more & an explanation of the different yardstick mirror tricks (U can check it out here - to The Financial Report of the United States, which Congressman Cooper is now publishing for the whole world to read. - U can also vet the data from: The Financial Report of the USA [you can buy from Amazon], published by Nelson Current & called by Cooper "the official report the White House does not want you to read." Also contains letters from David M. Walker, Comptroller General & head of the US Govt Accountability Office (GAO), who matter-of-factly states that America has a "broken business model."
11. Nations secretly buying gold, £'s & euros may do so more heavily in Oct, knowing DC unlikely to punish them (being too busy politicking), & sensing a change in Congress & thus US policy via Nov election.
12. Psychologically, the world is moving en masse into a disillusion & despair phase, replacing former fear & aggression phase. Disbelief is becoming dominant. We saw it strongly recently in Thailand, Lebanon, Japan, Germany, Italy, Sweden, UK & in the US - where its effect on US elections will favour the less aggressive Democrats. The Republicans can outspend the Dems 5 to 1, & US Oct TV will be choked with poli-ads. But negative ads may backfire per my observation above.
13. Hezbollah may kick up trouble in Oct, a surprise. US & Israel may be slow or reluctant to act, per # 11.
14. Oct may see a surge into deflation. This reflects less govt credit creation & money pumping. No helicopters dropping $'s. Also reflects rapidly deflating housing bubble. Commodities May-Sept washout may continue into Oct, or if not, can have spillover effect. This probably relates to my 5-year forecast cartoon in HSL640 (5/9/04) showing the transition from rising inflation to disinflation to deflation to recession to X (economic chaos? Depression?).
15. One psychological study sent me pinpoints Mar-Aug 2011 as the "1931" of our future (ie, mid depression). This fits my prediction cartoon if projected 2 more yrs. Cheerful, eh? But nothing is to be feared if one is aware & prepares for various scenarios.
••• Since writing those words, The Economist mag headlines: Weapons of mass disinflation. They note "Cheaper goods from China do not just reduce the prices of our imports, but the prices of all goods sold in [our &] competing domestic mkts." !! And competition from emerging nations holds down inflation not just in traded goods but also in non-traded ones, by restraining wages" !! So cheap goods from China, etc, is a very sharp 2-edged sword that is doing karate-chops to biz profits & wage earners. This is an unexpected (by govt/public) deflationary surge, linking up with a commodity correction. For the shorterm, at least, deflation is a real worry (as friend Hugh Hendry predicted--see last GCRU) & if it gets out of control, it will quickly lead to a mega recession. This will affect US election also, as Oct news reports it daily.
16. This isn't a forecast, but historically, Oct has been the month-of-choice for major stock mkt crashes. I've been moderately bullish on US stocks, but S&P chart is in a bearish rising wedge. Not much left to go; make or break in Oct. Nasdaq is stronger, but is possibly in a year 2000-type blow-off stage. History repeats? DotComs caused the 2000 NAS blow-off. Will the Aug-Sept bursting of the housing bubble cause the Oct 2006 NAS blow-off?
17. If US stks fall, world will follow.
***This list sounds radical, but are we not in radical times? TIME mag thinks so, features Iran's president on its Sept 25 cover & interviews him. Buy a copy. TIME says a US cruiser, minesweepers & mine hunters are ordered to be ready to move (to the Gulf) by Oct 1. There's that word October again. Mine sweeping is essential if Iran plants mines as in last Iraq war. This reminds me of ship movements before the Iraq invasion. It was a giveaway that Bush planned to invade before he heard from UN inspectors or told Congress; he put troopships in place & pretended he had not yet decided. I reported this deceptive anomaly at the time, but the media didn't see it or want to report it. Déjà vu.
Time's excellent analysis notes: "On the face of it, a war with Iran is absurd." But they quote Ali Ansari, top think-tank Iran analyst: "We are headed for conflict." TIME quotes some who say Iran could become able to enrich enough uranium to fuel a bomb well before it actually assembles a nuclear device. "Some believe that is when a nation becomes a nuclear power. That red line, experts say, could be just a year away." IMO, GB wants that moment to come on his watch. By acting in Oct '06, he gets 2 birds with one net. If the Pentagon can't do it in Oct 06, then Oct 08 could work for the Nov 08 election. Flip a coin.
••• CNN interviewed Mr.Bush on 9/20. GB said if he gets evidence Iran is building a bomb, he'd take pre-emptive action. An Asian cynic commented "Israel could always manufacture it." (more Déjà vu)
•••• I hope most of the above doesn't take place, & normal odds say most won't. But power corrupts; power literally changes the human brain to do things beyond normal odds & expectations. So, dear reader, hunker down & put your house in order "just in case."
If U reread this Big Pic U'll see what to do; read between the lines.
UH
Archives
© Copyright 1964-2006 F.E.R.C.
Please Visit our Links for more related material.
Wednesday, October 18, 2006
Some Suggested Junior GOLD stocks...
CHARTWORKS - OCT 16, 2006
Gold Update
Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
Posted Oct 18, 2006
Technically, rising through 588 was needed to signal the next intermediate rally. This was barely accomplished on Friday and was exceeded this morning. [Monday].
.
The next target is the 607 - 610 level.
.
Breaking through that will take some work, hopefully with some changes in the credit markets that would support a more sustained advance.
.
In the meantime, John Embry, who manages the Sprott Gold & Precious Metals Fund, has provided us with five exploration stocks.
.
Our overview - "Gold Exploration" - was published on September 19, 2006 and outlined the risks and rewards in this sector.
.
The previous such review was published on November 19, 2005 and included a list of six picks by John. The results were outstanding.
These illiquid stocks should not be construed as an Institutional Advisors buy recommendation.
-Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
email: bobhoye@institutionaladvisors.com
website: www.institutionaladvisors.com
CHARTWORKS - OCT 16, 2006
The opinions in this report are solely those of the author. The information herein was obtained from various sources; however we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This research report is prepared for general circulation and is circulated for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security's price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities or options or futures contracts. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, whose values are influenced by the currency of the underlying security, effectively assume currency risk.
Moreover, from time to time, members of the Institutional Advisors team may be long or short positions discussed in our publications.
321gold Inc
Gold Update
Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
Posted Oct 18, 2006
Technically, rising through 588 was needed to signal the next intermediate rally. This was barely accomplished on Friday and was exceeded this morning. [Monday].
.
The next target is the 607 - 610 level.
.
Breaking through that will take some work, hopefully with some changes in the credit markets that would support a more sustained advance.
.
In the meantime, John Embry, who manages the Sprott Gold & Precious Metals Fund, has provided us with five exploration stocks.
.
Our overview - "Gold Exploration" - was published on September 19, 2006 and outlined the risks and rewards in this sector.
.
The previous such review was published on November 19, 2005 and included a list of six picks by John. The results were outstanding.
These illiquid stocks should not be construed as an Institutional Advisors buy recommendation.
-Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
email: bobhoye@institutionaladvisors.com
website: www.institutionaladvisors.com
CHARTWORKS - OCT 16, 2006
The opinions in this report are solely those of the author. The information herein was obtained from various sources; however we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This research report is prepared for general circulation and is circulated for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security's price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities or options or futures contracts. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, whose values are influenced by the currency of the underlying security, effectively assume currency risk.
Moreover, from time to time, members of the Institutional Advisors team may be long or short positions discussed in our publications.
321gold Inc
Watch the Major Trend in GOLD !
Mary Anne & Pamela Aden
The Aden Sisters
Oct 17, 2006
Courtesy of www.adenforecast.com
Last time we wrote about the importance of the major gold trend and our strategy for dealing with it, as well as market volatility.
When gold fell steeply this month we know it was nerve wracking, but it's important to remember that gold's major trend remains up and it's still bullish.
GOLD'S 65 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE IS THE KEY
The Aden Sisters
Oct 17, 2006
Courtesy of www.adenforecast.com
Last time we wrote about the importance of the major gold trend and our strategy for dealing with it, as well as market volatility.
When gold fell steeply this month we know it was nerve wracking, but it's important to remember that gold's major trend remains up and it's still bullish.
GOLD'S 65 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE IS THE KEY
Thursday, October 12, 2006
Our current position on precious metals
Jack Chanwww.simplyprofits.org Oct 12, 2006
Many readers of my work have commented that perhaps the PM sector has bottomed, because...
#1 - many reputable analysts are seeing their indicators at previous major bottoms
#2 - sentiment is very negative, which is a contrarians play.
As always, I have the utmost respect for my colleagues and although I don't always agree with them, my task is not to prove that I'm correct and they are wrong. My only focus as an analyst and active trader is profits, being right or wrong matters little to me. Regarding sentiment, this is an area many are confused. This is how I view sentiment...
Positive sentiment amid positive price action is natural, embrace it.Negative sentiment amid positive price action is a contrarian's play, buy it.Negative sentiment amid negative price action is natural, let it be.Positive sentiment amid negative price action is a contrarian's play, sell it.
Times like this could be very confusing for the gold and silver investors, as the natural force of greed and fear are equally at odds with each other. Feeling greedy because we don't want to miss the next golden rocket to the moon; feeling fearful because most investors will be seeing their September statements down 20 to 30% from previous months. Uncertainty is the biggest obstacle and challenge to an average investor.
My job as a market timer is to remove those uncertainties. I am either long, short, or in cash. If I'm positioned long or short, I manage risk by having planned exit points if my positions are proven incorrect. If I'm in cash, I enjoy the down time by going, you guessed it, fishing. I do not go into the long and winded debates on the economy, and all the fundamental issues surrounding it. I'm simply not smart enough.
Here are our current trading models and positions...
Please visit some of our other Related Sites...
Many readers of my work have commented that perhaps the PM sector has bottomed, because...
#1 - many reputable analysts are seeing their indicators at previous major bottoms
#2 - sentiment is very negative, which is a contrarians play.
As always, I have the utmost respect for my colleagues and although I don't always agree with them, my task is not to prove that I'm correct and they are wrong. My only focus as an analyst and active trader is profits, being right or wrong matters little to me. Regarding sentiment, this is an area many are confused. This is how I view sentiment...
Positive sentiment amid positive price action is natural, embrace it.Negative sentiment amid positive price action is a contrarian's play, buy it.Negative sentiment amid negative price action is natural, let it be.Positive sentiment amid negative price action is a contrarian's play, sell it.
Times like this could be very confusing for the gold and silver investors, as the natural force of greed and fear are equally at odds with each other. Feeling greedy because we don't want to miss the next golden rocket to the moon; feeling fearful because most investors will be seeing their September statements down 20 to 30% from previous months. Uncertainty is the biggest obstacle and challenge to an average investor.
My job as a market timer is to remove those uncertainties. I am either long, short, or in cash. If I'm positioned long or short, I manage risk by having planned exit points if my positions are proven incorrect. If I'm in cash, I enjoy the down time by going, you guessed it, fishing. I do not go into the long and winded debates on the economy, and all the fundamental issues surrounding it. I'm simply not smart enough.
Here are our current trading models and positions...
Please visit some of our other Related Sites...
Friday, November 18, 2005
Gold bull market for investors Jack Chan 321gold ..... Inc
This is a follow up to my last week's buy signal on the gold sector. If that buy signal succeeds, we are at the beginning of phase two of this generational bull market in gold and gold stocks.
Many readers of my articles are passive investors, not into "market timing" for various reasons.
Good news is, you don't have to trade in and out of the markets to get a better return, you simply find a major trend in the markets and ride that trend till it is over. Those who missed the phase one of the gold bull market, has now a second chance to participate, as following charts will show you. Please click here for the charts and more information...
More Precious Metals resources...
Many readers of my articles are passive investors, not into "market timing" for various reasons.
Good news is, you don't have to trade in and out of the markets to get a better return, you simply find a major trend in the markets and ride that trend till it is over. Those who missed the phase one of the gold bull market, has now a second chance to participate, as following charts will show you. Please click here for the charts and more information...
More Precious Metals resources...
Wednesday, October 19, 2005
Webgold News....
The Speculators Secrets to Profiting in the Gold Bull Market
By Doug Casey
Chairman, Casey Research, LLC.
The International Speculator
October 20, 2005
The 1980s were the decade of the speculator - and now, 20 years later, we have such a window of opportunity again. Successful speculators should emerge from the first decade of the 21st century wealthy beyond their wildest dreams. Fortunately, it's a profession open to all. No formal education, credentials, or licenses are required. All training is on the job, and best of all, the apprenticeship is "earn while you learn." It's an appealing job opportunity, but unfortunately one that carries a stigma.
I've been known to talk about a lot of suspiciously asocial concepts: financial crash, depression, hyperinflation, the alternative economy, hoarding. They're all buzz words that arouse vivid images and strong emotions. Perhaps the most powerful word of all, however, is "speculator." It sounds so irresponsible, opportunistic, and dangerous.
Politicians and the media throw the word speculator about so abusively. I suspect few people have ever dared to ask what one really is. In the popular mind a speculator is someone associated with shortages, price hikes, wars, natural disasters, and other calamities. A speculator is simply someone who sees, or anticipates distortions in the marketplace and positions himself to take advantage of them. Please click on this link to read the complete article.
More WebGold Silver and Precious metals News
By Doug Casey
Chairman, Casey Research, LLC.
The International Speculator
October 20, 2005
The 1980s were the decade of the speculator - and now, 20 years later, we have such a window of opportunity again. Successful speculators should emerge from the first decade of the 21st century wealthy beyond their wildest dreams. Fortunately, it's a profession open to all. No formal education, credentials, or licenses are required. All training is on the job, and best of all, the apprenticeship is "earn while you learn." It's an appealing job opportunity, but unfortunately one that carries a stigma.
I've been known to talk about a lot of suspiciously asocial concepts: financial crash, depression, hyperinflation, the alternative economy, hoarding. They're all buzz words that arouse vivid images and strong emotions. Perhaps the most powerful word of all, however, is "speculator." It sounds so irresponsible, opportunistic, and dangerous.
Politicians and the media throw the word speculator about so abusively. I suspect few people have ever dared to ask what one really is. In the popular mind a speculator is someone associated with shortages, price hikes, wars, natural disasters, and other calamities. A speculator is simply someone who sees, or anticipates distortions in the marketplace and positions himself to take advantage of them. Please click on this link to read the complete article.
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Wednesday, October 12, 2005
Oct 12, 2005 Gold's Looking Good Aden Sisters 321gold . . . Inc
Mary Anne & Pamela AdenThe Aden SistersOctober 13, 2005Courtesy of www.adenforecast.com
It's been an exciting month.
Gold took off, hitting a 17 year new bull market high and this is strong bullish action.
The rise in gold was reinforced by the gold shares, with the XAU index reaching an eight year high. The other metals and commodities joined the bandwagon with copper, platinum and the CRB commodity index hitting new record or near record highs.
Also important, gold soared while the dollar rose. This means gold is now rising on its own. This was reinforced by gold breaking out to multi-year highs against most of the other currencies as well (see Chart 1). Over the years we've been saying that when gold rises against all paper currencies, you'll know the bull market is real because it's not just a currency reaction. And this is now happening. Click on this link to read the complete article and charts...
More WebGold Silver and Precious metals News
It's been an exciting month.
Gold took off, hitting a 17 year new bull market high and this is strong bullish action.
The rise in gold was reinforced by the gold shares, with the XAU index reaching an eight year high. The other metals and commodities joined the bandwagon with copper, platinum and the CRB commodity index hitting new record or near record highs.
Also important, gold soared while the dollar rose. This means gold is now rising on its own. This was reinforced by gold breaking out to multi-year highs against most of the other currencies as well (see Chart 1). Over the years we've been saying that when gold rises against all paper currencies, you'll know the bull market is real because it's not just a currency reaction. And this is now happening. Click on this link to read the complete article and charts...
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Saturday, October 08, 2005
WebGold Silver and Precious metals News
Sterling Silver - The "Other" Precious Metal by Antigone Arthur
Learn More About This Affordable Alternative to Expensive JewelryHistory of Sterling SilverSilver jewelry has been a staple in the lives of mankind since humans discovered the versatility of silver and the many uses it has. Silver has been used for functional and aesthetic purposes. In times of old, silver was used to create flatware and armor to protect soldiers on their way into battle. Silver jewelry was later created and used by Phoenician and Egyptian citizens desiring attractive and convenient pieces to add to their jewelry collections. Over time silver has been used to create flatware, decorative art, coins, dental fillings, jewelry and more.
Silver is produced in many different areas, though the highest concentrations of silver output come from Mexico and Peru.
One of the reasons sterling silver jewelry is so popular is its affordability and versatility. ( Please click here to read more...)
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Learn More About This Affordable Alternative to Expensive JewelryHistory of Sterling SilverSilver jewelry has been a staple in the lives of mankind since humans discovered the versatility of silver and the many uses it has. Silver has been used for functional and aesthetic purposes. In times of old, silver was used to create flatware and armor to protect soldiers on their way into battle. Silver jewelry was later created and used by Phoenician and Egyptian citizens desiring attractive and convenient pieces to add to their jewelry collections. Over time silver has been used to create flatware, decorative art, coins, dental fillings, jewelry and more.
Silver is produced in many different areas, though the highest concentrations of silver output come from Mexico and Peru.
One of the reasons sterling silver jewelry is so popular is its affordability and versatility. ( Please click here to read more...)
More WebGold Silver and Precious metals News
